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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has something to gain from the alternative positions."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."